Meteorologists are forecasting that this winter’s strong-to-historic “Super El Niño” weather pattern will have significant implications for the globe.
This year’s El Niño event was officially declared by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) back in June and is predicted to be the strongest El Niño on record.
During an El Niño event, surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise as a consequence of weakened or reversed trade winds.
Warm waters that are typically pushed towards Asia instead drift east towards the Americas.
These disruptions to the jet stream can bring about dramatic shifts in otherwise conventional weather patterns across the globe.
In late September, intercollegiate research collective Climate Impact Lab projected that an atypical rise in global temperatures from this year’s El Niño could result in 451,000 excess deaths worldwide by Feb. 2027.
Current forecasts suggest that the Global South will be most impacted, particularly in Nigeria, Indonesia, and Sudan.
During El Niño events, the Pacific jet stream is driven south over the North American continent.
This shift diverts stormy weather to the southern U.S. and leaves the northern U.S. and Canada with dry, warmer-than-average conditions.
According to Illinois State Climatologist Dr. Trent Ford, this year’s “Super El Niño” is more consequential than a temperate Midwest winter.
“It is a really significant event,” said Ford. “Even though our impact from El Niño may be a little bit more muted, and some people may cheer for it, a milder winter, it definitely does have impacts across the globe. Of course, we know that our economies and our livelihoods are connected not just to what’s going on in Illinois, but elsewhere. It is important folks pay attention.”
Ford added that this year’s El Niño still presents challenges for Northern Illinois specifically.
Perennial crops that bloom earlier are more susceptible to damage from a Spring freeze, and invasive species like lone star ticks can persist in high concentrations.
But Ford says that other regions of the globe could face much greater adversity from El Niño during this year’s event.
Portions of northern Australia are at an increased risk of wildfire due to severe heatwaves and dry conditions.
Variable monsoons in parts of India and West Africa could lead to drought and food scarcity.
Heightened rainfall in parts of coastal Ecuador have also made the region more vulnerable to landslides.
This year’s "Super El Niño" event is expected to peak sometime near the end of this year and persist through Spring 2027.
