Derek Davis, a fifth-generation farmer from central Missouri, says he probably puts more time and effort into testing his soil contents than most producers – both before he plants, and during the growing season.
“It allows us to project the next several weeks so that we can make corrections in season if needed to raise as healthy of a crop as we can,” Davis said.
Davis measures many characteristics of his soil, including nutrient levels. Knowing how much nitrogen or phosphorus is already in the ground can help farmers like him save on fertilizer. That’s especially important this growing season, because of the high cost of doing business for farmers.
Sharp increases in the price of inputs such as diesel fuel and nitrogen fertilizer are forcing farmers to make tough choices about how to spend their resources. That could include deferring equipment maintenance or upgrades, cutting back on pesticides or spreading less fertilizer.
DeDe Jones, a risk management economist for the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service, works with growers to help them turn a profit. That’s proving to be particularly difficult this year, though.
“This is not going to be a year where there’s a silver bullet where essentially I say, ‘Grow this crop and you’ll be fine,’” Jones said. “In terms of the input cost side, it just is going to come down to these little adjustments you can make.”
Affording fertilizer
Jones, like Davis, advocates for testing soil contents before spreading fertilizer.
“With nitrogen being so extremely high [in cost] right now, any residual you can take advantage of that’s already in the soil is going to help the bottom line,” Jones said.
Davis also runs a crop consultancy business, which he opened nine years ago. Lately, he’s seen more demand for his soil testing services.
“The interest has been increasing each year,” Davis said. “However, with the current economic status of row crop farming, specifically in the Midwest, that has accelerated more in the last couple years.”
But some farmers he knows are taking a more drastic cost-cutting step this season.
“There’s a lot of growers that I’m aware of that simply just cut fertilizer, or most of it, out,” Davis said.
The price of nitrogen fertilizer has increased by more than 30% since the start of the war in Iran, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. Some farmers, particularly in the Midwest, bought fertilizer in the fall when prices were lower. But many did not.
Diesel fuel costs nearly $2 more per gallon now than this time last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Farm economists expected producers to face tight margins in 2026, even before the U.S. and Israel’s armed forces attacked Iran and blockaded the Strait of Hormuz. Restricting traffic through the strait has pushed prices on fuel and fertilizer up even more.
“That wasn't built into any of the cash flow projections or the plans for this year. And so I would call that definitely a shock to the system,” said Michael Langemeier, professor and director of the Center for Commercial Agriculture at Purdue University.
Farmers may sacrifice some production by pulling back on fertilizer, according to Langemeier.
“The problem with [reducing fertilizer] is that you usually have a yield impact. And so you have to decide whether that reduction in input is worth the reduction in yield you’re going to get,” he said.
If they’re able, producers may opt not to grow crops that require nitrogen fertilizer, according to Jonathan LaPorte, a farm business management educator with Michigan State University. Some could swap out corn, which needs nitrogen.
“Soybeans are right now a little bit favorable compared to corn,” LaPorte said. “The soybeans need different fertilizer, potassium being the big fertilizer that it needs. And that price has been pretty favorable.”
Adjusting expectations
Farmers may also be able to stay profitable this year by lowering their yield expectations, LaPorte said.
That means focusing less on producing as much of a crop as possible, and more on managing expenses.
“It's this kind of almost opposite way of thinking, to say that we're not going to try to get every bushel we can off of the field,” LaPorte said. And so it definitely takes a little bit of a shift in mindset to look at maximizing profit versus maximizing yields.”
Davis, the farmer and crop consultant from Missouri, said he also advises clients to target profitability per acre, rather than overall yield. Year after year of tough economic conditions have pushed many producers to reevaluate how they run their business, he said.
“They've been able to do what grandpa did, what dad did, been able to continue to do that and still make a profit and the farm's fine. But that's not the case now,” said Davis.
Langemeier of Purdue thinks that farmers will spend less this year on capital investments like land and equipment. And if economic conditions worsen, he worries some producers could have trouble paying outstanding debts.
“My principal payments on machinery that I've purchased in previous years, any buildings I've purchased in the previous years that I have payments on, any land that I purchased in previous years,” said Langemeier. “You need to think about: Am I gonna be able to pay that? And if I can't, come up with a contingency plan.”
This story was produced in partnership with Harvest Public Media, a collaboration of public media newsrooms in the Midwest and Great Plains. It reports on food systems, agriculture and rural issues.
