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Perspective: On tipping points

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A tipping point implies a threshold event that results in a game-changing outcome. We used to use tipping points when discussing the threat of global warming, but we do not do that anymore. The problem is that a 2-degree global temperature increase is not a magic number. Despite the existential consequences, passing that threshold does not make one day different from the next.

In politics, tipping points do happen. The bombing of Pearl Harbor brought the U.S. into the war in a day. Sen. Joseph McCarthy's collapse seemed to stem from one sentence: "At long last, sir, have you no decency?" But that tipping point would not have happened without a widespread, mostly unspoken groundswell of outrage at his tactics. Until then, most people were still too afraid to speak up.

Which obviously brings me to Trump. Democrats have pronounced dozens of supposed tipping points: the Access Hollywood tape, "injecting bleach," Jan. 6, "they're eating the cats, they're eating the dogs," tariffs. I could go on. But how about the Iran war? His poll numbers are lower than ever, but where is the tipping point where his voters speak out?

In his 2024 campaign, he promised lower prices and repeatedly said "no more stupid wars." But while demanding the Nobel Peace Prize, he has overseen military action in Yemen, Somalia, Syria, Nigeria, Iraq and Venezuela, while threatening Cuba and Greenland. This past week, he promised to bomb Iran "back to the Stone Age," specifically citing civilian targets and vowing to destroy Iranian culture — language that many legal experts say could implicate war crimes standards.

I'm Reed Scherer, and that's my perspective.

Copy Edited by Eryn Lent

A member of the Northern Illinois University faculty of Geology and Environmental Geosciences since 2000, Reed Scherer's research spans the spectrum from the smallest of fossils (diatoms) to the largest (dinosaurs). Most of his research relates to the vulnerability of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change.