Illinois has contended with an influx of smoke and haze from wildfires in neighboring Canada since last week.
To learn more about these fires and their impact on the Midwest, WNIJ’s Sam Naftzger spoke over the phone with Illinois’ State Climatologist Dr. Trent Ford.
Dr. Ford has been Illinois’ State Climatologist with University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign’s Prairie Research Institute since 2019.
This conversation has been edited for clarity and brevity.
Sam Naftzger (SN): Can you provide some background on the ongoing wildfires occurring in Canada at the moment? Perhaps any thoughts on how air quality conditions are looking in the immediate future?
Dr. Trent Ford (TF): The issue has been that parts of Canada and the northern edge of the U.S., including northern Minnesota, have had a really bad wildfire season so far. Right now, there are 809 active fires across Canada, many of which are in Ontario, just to the northwest of us. Many of those in Ontario are currently considered out of control and are burning greater than 1,000 hectares, which is quite a large fire. Now, this is something that’s been going on for at least a month or so but when a shift in the winds last week brought in a more northwesterly flow, it pushed wildfire smoke into the Midwest.
The cold front that came through set up the right conditions for that air to reach the surface. Sometimes we’ll have wildfire smoke that reaches the region, but it’s up in the higher parts of the atmosphere. That’s when you’ll notice a hazy sunset or sunrise, but there won’t be air quality problems.
In this case, smoke and pollutants got all the way down to the ground and caused air quality issues. So that's what set up this last week of very poor air quality. Because that flow was so strong from the northwest, it dropped air quality conditions into that unhealthy or worse category all the way from Minneapolis to Boston.
So, really significant impacts there across the whole Great Lakes and northeast parts of U.S. We've seen some of those air quality issues subside, but we still see that much of Illinois is in a range that’s unhealthy for sensitive groups. The EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) says their air quality index is unhealthy in south central Illinois. But moving forward it looks like some of that is going to clear as the smoke is tamped down by rain in Canada, and a shift in the winds has really helped us.
SN: So, another question I have is how common is this sort of wildfire occurrence within Canada? Also, what conditions can lead to wildfires like this occurring?
TF: Yeah, so having this number of fires in Canada is not necessarily rare. The rarer condition right now is where those fires are. To give you an idea, the area burned in Canada right now is a little over their 10-year average. So, it's not particularly extreme, and actually Canada has had less area burned this year compared to this time last year.
Most often we'll see areas of western Canada and far eastern Canada, especially northern stretches of those provinces, that have more frequent fire issues. This year, the province with the largest area burned is Ontario, especially southwest Ontario, which is less accustomed to these kinds of fires.
So, geography says, if northern British Columbia, northern Alberta, and northern Quebec are burning, that those provinces, even under northwesterly winds, will have their wildfire smoke dissipate before it hits the U.S. It may not even reach the U.S. But with those fires in southwest Ontario, common northwesterly winds this time of year can make conditions ripe for poor air quality.
Obviously, any time we have a wildfire issue like this, especially in a place like central Canada, it coincides with dryness. We’ve had drought in that area, and we've got elevated temperatures that have helped as well. It's also been fairly windy. But overall, what we see when we look at historical trends and projections is that this area, including that part of southwest Ontario, is expected to continue warming and have more frequent, intense periods of dryness that can make it more conducive for wildfires.
So, the wildfire risk in that part of the country has increased and is increasing. With that increased wildfire risk comes an increased risk of wildfire smoke coming to us. The risk is there that we’ll continue to experience these types of conditions, if not more so.
SN: If regions in Ontario and the Midwest are generally more unaccustomed to these conditions, what sort of impact do these wildfires have on communities and public health at large? Especially if these regions are experiencing more frequent occurrences of wildfire smoke?
TF: In some parts of the United States, wildfire is a regular occurrence at least once a year. They have a wildfire season, and it's expected in places like western Montana during the fall, especially the smoky air. People there plan accordingly. They have indoor air testing and indoor air filters.
Here in the Midwest, this isn't something we've dealt with in the past a whole lot, and it comes at a time when a lot of the upper Midwest and the Northeast are in peak summer. A lot of those places don't necessarily have air conditioning, which means they don't have indoor air treatment. This is the time of year when parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine and New Hampshire open their windows to let cool air in, especially nighttime air. When we don't have access to air conditioning, that can be a major issue when that air is polluted during the hottest time of the year.
Another issue is an overall awareness of air quality problems. When we get this kind of air quality issue, it's something that folks in general tend to treat similarly to heat. People are aware of the threat but aren’t dramatically changing their plans.
What poor air quality tends to do is exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in health, especially in those with pre-existing pulmonary or respiratory issues, like asthma and emphysema, COPD, those kinds of things. But it can also be problematic for folks who are elderly, young children, and those who are pregnant. Those are the high-risk groups for these kinds of air quality problems. Otherwise, it can be irritating for people in general, irritating breathing ways and irritating their eyes when they step outside.
There was a paper published last year in Nature that estimated county level excess mortality related to wildfire smoke across the United States. Excess mortality is the same method we use to track deaths related to extreme heat, since it's very hard to tell from health data if somebody has died from heat or wildfire smoke. Persons with COPD or diabetes are likely going to present in the hospital with the same symptoms of their pre-existing condition.
It’s estimated that on average each year Illinois sees about 2,000 to 2,500 excess deaths related simply to wildfire smoke. So that’s significant. That’s much larger than deaths due to lightning, tornadoes, and flooding put together. Now, that’s an estimate based off a model, so there’s no direct observation, but it gives you an idea of the potential impact of wildfire smoke.
SN: Seeing as we’re still contending with this current wildfire season, what precautions would you advise Illinoisians to take? I’d also like to know what things will look like going forward.
TF: It's going to be fairly cool for July, but not as smoky. So, that'll be great. But wildfires are still burning in Canada and Minnesota, which means that when the winds shift in the right direction, we’ll get more smoke. So, this isn’t something that's immediately going away for the rest of summer.
What I suggest first and foremost is to check the air quality index daily. Some days you’ll know when there's bad air quality because the skies over Chicago are yellow, but there are days when it's not quite as obvious, but still dangerous as far as the air quality is concerned. So be checking that air quality index on the EPA's website daily, just to make sure before you go out and plan activities.
This is especially important for if you’re doing strenuous exercise, spending a lot of time outdoors, or if you’re in one of those more sensitive groups. A nice N95 mask can provide a lot of help in those situations.
And if you have an indoor air purifier, just be running that a lot. If you don't have one, those air purifiers can be $20 to $25 at your normal Walmart or wherever. So, it’s not cost prohibitive. Just running that can help clean up some of the indoor air quality as well. It can be rather frustrating to see a nice, otherwise pleasant weather day impeded by poor air quality, but it is a definite health threat and should be treated as such.
SN: Alright. Well, Trent, thank you so much for your time. I really appreciate this.
TF: Thanks. Have a good rest of your week.
