AILSA CHANG, HOST:
The U.S.-Iran war is once again escalating. Over the last two weeks, the agreement that was supposed to stop fighting and lead to further negotiations has unraveled. The two sides have traded attacks and counter attacks against not only military targets, but also critical infrastructure, like water treatment facilities. Meanwhile, Iranian missiles and drones have targeted neighboring Gulf states and the U.S. forces based there, claiming the lives of three U.S. service members since Friday. The U.S. has heavily bombarded Iran, and President Trump posted today that Iran will be made to pay for the killing of each American soldier, quote, "several times over." Now, the average price of gas in the U.S. is over $4 a gallon - again, that's according to AAA - as Iran has reasserted control over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and as the U.S. reinstates a blockade on Iranian ports. For analysis on where we are at this moment in the war, we're joined now by Suzanne Maloney. She's an Iran specialist at the Brookings Institution. Welcome.
SUZANNE MALONEY: Thanks so much, Ailsa.
CHANG: OK, so this war, I mean, it's been going on for almost five months at this point. Given the latest escalation, Suzanne, how would you characterize where we are in this moment of the conflict?
MALONEY: Well, I think what has happened is that the memorandum of understanding, which held for about 3.5 weeks, really wasn't sufficient, wasn't fully understood and agreed to by both sides. There were differing interpretations of key terms, and the Iranians sought to impose their own interpretation, particularly around the passage through the Strait of Hormuz. And the United States has decided that it will not tolerate continued threats by the Iranians and is trying to coerce the Iranians to stand down. I think, ultimately, there isn't really a decisive military solution to this standoff, and I expect at some point we're going to see a resurgence of diplomatic activity.
CHANG: Can you also explain, how is Iran taking this conflict to the broader Middle East? Like, put into context not only the fatal attacks we saw on the U.S. base in Jordan, but also attacks on Bahrain, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and so on.
MALONEY: Well, from the beginning of the war, the Iranians sought not to try to deter the United States through punishing American forces, but rather by punishing America's partners and allies in the region, striking critical infrastructure, American military bases in the region and soft targets like hotels and airports, as well as economic and energy infrastructure. And all of those responses from Iran had a sufficient cost to begin to change the United States calculus over time, in part because of the intervention of America's partners and allies who were saying, enough is enough. We need to be able to get back to business as usual. We were in the midst of major economic transformation in the case of several of the most important states in the Gulf Cooperation Council - Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - and they simply want an end to this war, but they're unable to impose one either on the United States or on the Iranians.
CHANG: Well, with respect to the calculus for the U.S., the Iran-backed Houthi militia today said it would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia. Can you explain what effect that would have if they can actually achieve that?
MALONEY: Well, fundamentally, that's the shoe everyone has been waiting to drop since the outset of this conflict. If you think back to the height of the war in Gaza, in fact the Houthis were, in fact, distracting and diverting traffic through the Red Sea by attacks on shippers there. That was in some respects, a prelude for what we saw of the Iranian calculus in the Strait of Hormuz. But the Houthis have been relatively quiet since the Iran War began. If, in fact, they began attacking transit through the Bab-el-Mandeb at the Red Sea, that would effectively negate the Saudi workaround measures of using their east-west pipeline to export about 3.5 million barrels a day at minimum, through the Red Sea, which was their alternative workaround...
CHANG: Right.
MALONEY: ...For the Strait of Hormuz. It was, in fact, an important lifeline for the Saudi economy and for the international economy because it helps maintain, you know, prices without a really precipitous escalation.
CHANG: So connect the dots even further. Rippling out, that would mean what for the overall global economy in some sense?
MALONEY: Well, I think if you saw a closure of the Red Sea in addition to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, at this point in the conflict, with strategic reserves having been drawn down as significantly as they have and without a lot of opportunity during the ceasefire to, in fact, restore them, we would see potentially some overreaction from both oil markets and the broader economy in terms of inflation. So I think there's going to be a real time pressure, especially if the Houthis get in on the action.
CHANG: Yeah. What leverage does the U.S. have here? Like, is the bombing campaign or the blockade, is any of that bringing Iran any closer to the table for talks?
MALONEY: Well, I think the Iranians have signaled that they might be open to some diplomacy as well. There was an American-Iranian dual national who was able to leave Iran after having been in prison for a long time last week. They say that they're maintaining some diplomatic channels via Pakistan. And it's clear that the blockade and the larger effect on the Iranian economy as a result of months of bombardment of civilian as well as military infrastructure are having some impact. I think the challenge is simply that the Iranian regime is prepared to make its population pay the price and wants to try to outlast the United States and the international economy.
CHANG: Yeah.
MALONEY: And they may well be in a position to do so.
CHANG: Well, in the last minute we have, in terms of stability in the region, you've been talking recently about the idea that even if the U.S. and Iran agree to some ceasefire, this kind of recurring flare up is just going to be expected. Can you explain what that means?
MALONEY: I think we're likely to see violence in the region for some time to come, an unsettled and uncertain situation, perhaps a situation of no war and no peace with recurrent outbreaks. But that will also speed the development of alternative arrangements, including new pipelines and new shipping methods to help mitigate the reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.
CHANG: Suzanne Maloney is vice president and director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. Thank you so much for joining us today.
MALONEY: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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