Illinois' 16th Congressional District resembles the 14th in a couple of ways, according to Matt Streb. The political scientist notes Democratic map-makers packed IL-16 with Republican voters in order to increase the number of Democrats in neighboring districts. This makes things easy for the incumbent, Adam Kinzinger, and very difficult for his latest challenger, Randall Olsen.
Streb cites recent fundraising totals showing Olsen with $10,000 compared to Kinzinger's $1.2 million. "It is virtually impossible for Olsen to get any sort of message out there," Streb says, "other than a website with a Youtube video and those sorts of things."
The comparison with the race in IL-14 becomes more apt when you look at the voting record of the incumbents. Kinzinger and fellow House member Randy Hultgren voted more than 90% of the time with the Republican Party, according to Open Congress. Even though the 113th Congress didn't accomplish much, GOP members can say they stopped President Obama's agenda.
"That's a popular message in a heavily Republican district," Streb says.
When it comes to issues in the 16th, Democrat Olsen stresses his support for a woman's right to choose even though he's personally against abortion. Kinzinger voted to ban federal health coverage that includes abortion. Olsen, an Air Force veteran, wants the Veterans Administration to reduce wait times for vets seeking treatment. Kinzinger, also a veteran, went on TV to demand the VA director's resignation. But issues probably won't matter in this race, according to Streb, which leads to yet another comparison with the 14th District:
"It's tough for issues to matter when there's not much of a debate going on."
In 2012, Kinzinger took 62% of the vote against Democrat Wanda Rohl. Streb expects the incumbent to win by a similar margin on Nov. 4.
On Thursday, Streb examines a very different contest in the 17th Congressional District. Listen during Morning Edition at 6:34 and 8:34, then come back here for more information. Friday, we'll examine the Governor's race.
Matt Streb chairs the political science department at Northern Illinois University. Previously, he examined the U.S. Senate race between Dick Durbin and Jim Oberweis. #WNIJ2014Election
