Raymond Parrish has been farming wheat and corn in northern Oklahoma for most of his life. He says he’s seen a lot over the years on this land where the Kansas Red Hills turn back into prairie – both the good and bad.
Any day now, he’ll be done harvesting his hard red winter wheat crop, and he says it’s likely going to be one of the bad years.
“We were dry most of the winter, and it was probably the warmest February and March I’ve ever seen,” Parrish said.
He’s not alone. Across the 18 states that produce winter wheat, 45% of the crop is in poor or very poor condition, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest crop report. That’s following drought, wildfires and record-breaking high temperatures in the winter and early spring across much of the Great Plains.
Parrish is likely to yield only around 30 bushels of wheat per acre. Last year, he was doubling those numbers. He compared the financial strain to the Farm Crisis in the 1980s.
“I went through the ‘80s, and I think the ‘80s were easier to get through than this time now,” Parrish said.
Across the wheat belt
Hard red winter wheat is a staple crop in many Great Plains states. It’s one of the few crops in the region that is used more directly for human consumption – ending up on grocery store shelves as all purpose flour, tortillas and cereals.
Mary Eisenzimmer is on the Nebraska Wheat Board and farms in the Nebraska panhandle.
She said farmers take pride in providing good wheat for flour and other products. When they have a tough year, she said it’s more likely for consumers to feel it.
“I hope we're not going to be that short on supply this year that you're going to see that come in the market, but that could be a real potential,” Eisenzimmer said.
Nebraska has faced a record-breaking year for wildfires, with over 800,000 acres burned. One blaze in mid-March, the Morrill Fire, accounted for over 600,000 acres. Nearly 60% of the state’s winter wheat crop is in very poor condition, according to the USDA, with another 28% in poor condition.
Eisenzimmer said the fires did not reach their wheat, but it could make wheat demand higher for cattle that lost their grazing sources.
She hopes a good corn crop later this year can make up for their low wheat yields. But Eisenzimmer said they will have to “tighten their belt” financially to make it through.
“My dad used to always say, you have to put some money away for the rainy days because you never know what kind of year you will get,” she said.
In Kansas, the “bread basket” has one of its smallest wheat crops in 50 years. From February through April, critical growing months for wheat, much of western Kansas received less than an inch of rain, with some areas reporting as little as a quarter inch.
The Kansas Wheat Commission reports over half of the harvested wheat has been poor quality. Some models show yields will be down 30% from last year.
Logan Simon, an agronomist for Kansas State University, said 20% of the wheat crop has been abandoned entirely.
“That is very high for Kansas," he said. "That's not common for us."
Simon said conditions during planting season showed a lot of promise, but then it stopped raining, and the wheat just could not push through.
“It’s not like it’s not what we expected (given the drought), but then the reality starts to set in,” he said.
This story was produced in partnership with Harvest Public Media, a collaboration of public media newsrooms in the Midwest and Great Plains. It reports on food systems, agriculture and rural issues.
Calen Moore reports for the Kansas News Service, a collaboration of KCUR, Kansas Public Radio, KMUW and High Plains Public Radio.