STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
We have some news from the Middle East this morning. Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire, according to a senior U.S. official, although we see no sign yet on the ground. We're also tracking the sweeping consequences of a U.S. agreement with Iran. The war has reshaped power relations in the Middle East. At the start, the U.S. launched an attack in cooperation with Israel. President Trump pushed so hard that some of his own former allies, like Tucker Carlson, claimed he was doing Israel's bidding. Now, as the war ends, President Trump has spoken well of the Iranians, and his vice president lashed out at Israel. We're going to hear what these events mean for many countries, and we begin with NPR's Greg Myre in Tel Aviv. Hi there, Greg.
GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hi, Steve.
INSKEEP: How do people see these events in Israel where you are?
MYRE: Yeah. The daily commentary from politicians and the media has this consistent theme of, this is a good deal for Iran and a bad deal for Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has argued for decades - literally decades - that Israel needs to undermine Iran's Islamic leadership. He was all in on this war, and yet it didn't achieve its objectives. Also, Netanyahu has completely aligned himself with President Trump. Yet Trump and Vance, as you mentioned, are openly critical of Israel. Here's Vance yesterday.
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JD VANCE: If I was in the Cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.
MYRE: So the main point of friction right now is Israel's ongoing military operation in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, and very heavy fighting is taking place there today. The larger issue, though, is really the future of the U.S.-Israel relationship. Israel is increasingly isolated internationally, and now this most important relationship is facing strains that may extend beyond the current conflict.
INSKEEP: So Israel feels like they're losing ground. What about Iran?
MYRE: Yeah. Iran looks like it emerged with a stronger regional position, yet conditions inside Iran are probably more challenging than ever. Iran's government endured a major military campaign by the U.S. Iran inflicted all this punishment on Gulf Arab states, and it shut down the Strait of Hormuz. But this is also the government that's widely unpopular inside Iran. It killed thousands of protesters back in January, according to human rights groups. I spoke with Paul Salem. He's based in Lebanon with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the U.S. think tank.
PAUL SALEM: While they've survived this war, their entire strategy over the last 30, 40 years has also failed. They have no nuclear program. The proxies have not served to protect them. Their economy is in shambles.
INSKEEP: Oh, that's very interesting. So the analysis here is the U.S. war goals failed. Israeli war goals failed. Iran maybe also failed. Where does Lebanon fit into this?
MYRE: Yeah, Steve. Lebanon has two unresolved battles - one military, one political. Both are critical. On the military front, we mentioned the Israeli troops fighting against Hezbollah, and this conflict is supposed to end as part of the U.S.-Iran deal. And then on the political level, Lebanon's relatively weak government and army are trying to gain some measure of control over Hezbollah. These are both huge challenges, but they are issues being actively addressed right now, and the outcome will determine whether Lebanon can become a peaceful, stable country or remain mired in chaos.
INSKEEP: Greg, set us up for this next discussion that Leila's going to have. It is about the Arab Gulf countries - Iran's neighbors around the Persian Gulf. Have some of their fears about this war been realized?
MYRE: Yeah. The short answer is yes. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and others have taken a big economic hit during the war because they couldn't export oil and gas. Now, they're wealthy, and they will recover as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, but their basic model has been overturned. These were stable, reliable, predictable places that attracted foreign investors, tourists. And it steered clear of the turbulence elsewhere in the region. Now they're very much part of that turmoil, and they realize how vulnerable they are. Their security is built on a U.S. military presence, and they discovered that protection is far from airtight. Yet right now there's no real alternative to U.S. security.
INSKEEP: NPR's Greg Myre has covered the Middle East for many years, and you can hear it in that analysis. Greg, thanks so much.
MYRE: Sure thing, Steve. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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