AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
We'll dig a little deeper now into the Strait of Hormuz with Noam Raydan. She's a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy and writes about energy and maritime risk in the Middle East. Thank you so much for being with us.
NOAM RAYDAN: Good morning, and thank you.
RASCOE: So what do you think the logic is behind President Trump's vow this morning to blockade the strait?
RAYDAN: That's a very good question. We are still waiting for more clarification on that, what it entails. But based on what has been shared so far by the president - and this is my initial take - Iran will view any naval blockade as a measure or an action against its own vessels that are entering or leaving the region and will likely retaliate. I do not see Iran not taking a countermeasure against that. Let's remember that Iranian ships have been freely using the Strait of Hormuz during the war, while Iran has been controlling the transit of non-Iranian ships. So in other words, Iran has been able to export its oil out of the region during the war while controlling the traffic of other, non-Iranian ships. Any attempt to blockade Iranian vessels will likely bring about Iranian retaliation. So this is my initial take. I don't see any blockade helping de-escalate the situation. We should expect escalation if this takes place.
RASCOE: The president also talked about that they would try to get the mines out of the strait, or the U.S. will try to get the mines out of the strait. Can a blockade achieve that, or what would happen there?
RAYDAN: Iran will not make that a very easy mission. We should expect Iran to retaliate. And let me remind you that Iran has been attacking ships inside the Persian Gulf and in nearby waterways like Gulf of Oman during the war. I do not expect that mission to be easy. Iran, again, will view it as an action against it in the region, and therefore, it will take a measure against it. And what worries me is the following - that Iran might start attacking more ships inside the Persian Gulf just to escalate and make the mission more difficult.
RASCOE: What does this mean for all the other ships that generally would transit through the Strait of Hormuz? What happens to traffic now?
RAYDAN: Unfortunately, it seems that it's going to get more complicated. The maritime crisis in the strait requires a diplomatic solution. It requires a situation - the situation - excuse me - to de-escalate to ensure safe passage for ships. Sadly, we're not there. This means that even the countries like India, for instance, that heavily rely on the Middle East gulf for its energy needs, specifically crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, they will even find it more difficult right now to get their ships out of the region. In other words, this will put more pressure on global markets, it will put more pressure on regional oil producers and exporters, and it will also put more pressure on importers, like India and others, such as Japan, and U.S. ally that heavily rely on this region to get their energy needs. So this is why in my writings and even during my interviews, I keep saying that the solution is de-escalation and finding a diplomatic solution for it, but sadly, we're not there yet.
RASCOE: How much pressure will be on Iran if it can't move its ships through the strait because it had been getting money through those oil exports?
RAYDAN: That's a very good question. We need to know something about Iran. Even before the war, they were able to continue exporting at very high levels. We're talking about 1.5 million barrels per day and 2 million barrels per day. They never stop exporting. They have a lot of oil sitting on tankers floating on water outside the Persian Gulf, meaning they already have storage on water in case there was a disruption in the flow of their crude oil, condensate and oil products out of the Persian Gulf. They also have a pipeline that runs to a port - Iranian port that is along the Gulf of Oman, meaning outside the Persian Gulf. Of course, it cannot substitute the oil flow from Kharg Island inside the Persian Gulf, but they have a few alternatives.
RASCOE: At this point, do you see any way we could return to the prewar order in the Strait of Hormuz?
RAYDAN: As I've been calling it, there's a new navigational order in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, and it's also very similar to the new navigational order that emerged in the Southern Red Sea, where the Houthis launched a maritime campaign in 2023. And unfortunately, navigation never returned back to normal in the Southern Red Sea, and I do not expect navigation to return to normal right now in the Strait of Hormuz. We have two maritime crisis (inaudible) right now - the Strait of Hormuz and another critical chokepoint for global trade known as Bab el-Mandeb in the Southern Red Sea.
RASCOE: That's Noam Raydan of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Thank you so much.
RAYDAN: Thank you.
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