An average 15-pound turkey could cost around $30 this Thanksgiving, according to an analysis from Purdue University.
That’s a 75% price increase since October 2024—a reversal from the relatively low prices of previous years. But why?
“Around this time of year, we typically see some price change,” said Caitlinn Hubbell, a researcher at Purdue who co-authored the analysis. “But right now, we're seeing higher feed costs.”
Hubbell said animal feed often makes up 60-70% of a producer’s operating costs. While each farmer has their own special feed mixture, usually prepared by a nutritionist, most include minerals, vitamins and other ingredients imported from abroad. Those ingredients have recently been hit by tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration.
Higher bird populations could help rein in higher poultry costs, but with bird flu having already killed over 7 million commercial fowl this year, that’s unlikely to happen.
Bird flu central
Minnesota, the biggest turkey-producing state in the country, is already on track to have close to a million turkey deaths from bird flu.
“We've always sort of been flu central because of our location in this wild bird flyway,” said Carol Cardona, the Pomeroy chair in avian health at the University of Minnesota. “We get a lot of wild waterfowl, which is great for hunting, but kind of difficult for flu season.”
Many wild waterfowl tend to nest in northern states, and once their babies hatch, all sorts of diseases mix and mingle.
“It's sort of like when you send your kids to school,” Cardona said. “They all see each other after summer break, which is great, but then they come together, and they get that first cold, and that's kind of what we see.”
When wild birds fly south for food and warmth, they build up antibodies that mean there’ll be less of a bird flu spread. Iowa, for instance, hasn’t seen many cases, according to Yuko Sato, a diagnostic pathologist and extension veterinarian at Iowa State University.
“We had one case in October in our state,” she said. “Ever since that, it's been quiet.”
Sato works to identify disease among bird flocks when farmers report it. While she operates out of Iowa, she travels all over the Midwest to confirm cases.
She said bird flu is unlikely to directly affect wholesale prices because frozen turkeys are often stored in warehouses ahead of the holidays. That way, the poultry industry can prevent mass casualty events from disrupting their supply.
“What it impacts first is basically those delis,” Sato said. “Those ground turkeys are the ones that are going to be impacted first, because that's a more consistent market, rather than a seasonal market.”
That’s why controlling bird flu is essential to lowering poultry prices.
“Of course, if we were able to bring [bird flu] down, that's going to be a massive positive effect for the entire industry,” Sato said.
How to prepare for higher prices
“Just because wholesale prices are high doesn't mean that the retailer is going to pass that all the way on to the consumer,” Hubbell from Purdue University said.
In a world where sticker shock is commonplace, retailers are trying to offer deals to retain customers, she said. Walmart, for example, is offering its wholesale turkeys at just below a dollar a pound in its annual meal deal.
President Donald Trump recently quoted that Walmart deal as a sign of affordability in the economy. However, Walmart president and CEO John Furner said the price reduction was intended to add “value” for customers seeking a cheaper option.
While high turkey prices may be a concern, other complementary goods have actually become more affordable.
“Foods like fruits and vegetables, potatoes, especially bread … we haven't seen large increases in price there,” Hubbell said. “So if consumers were looking to save money, I think those would be foods that you could add to complement your meal.”
If customers are worried about a more expensive family Thanksgiving dinner, Hubbell said it's a good idea to shop early, scout for deals and make a comprehensive budget.
This story was produced in partnership with Harvest Public Media, a collaboration of public media newsrooms in the Midwest and Great Plains. It reports on food systems, agriculture and rural issues.
