One of Illinois’ most Republican Congressional districts, the 14th, was created by Democrats who controlled the redistricting process in 2010.
The party’s map-makers packed GOP voters into this district in an effort to make neighboring districts more Democratic. So it was little surprise when the incumbent, Randy Hultgren, took 65% of the vote in 2014. He has no opponent in the March 15th primary.
The three Democrats competing to challenge Hultgren this Fall are John Hosta, Jim Walz and Jesse Maggitt.
None has raised much money and all are political novices, according to Matt Streb, who chairs the political science department at Northern Illinois University. “Hosta ran before but he’s never held office before,” Streb says, noting Hosta lost in the last primary.
“It’s difficult to get your A-List challengers to go out and run in these races when it’s going to be awfully hard to win come November,” he says.
In such a heavily partisan district, Streb says, an incumbent is usually defeated only in a primary. “Most Republicans, unless Randy Hultgren does something incredibly egregious, are happy with Hultgren,” Streb says. “If they weren’t, you probably would’ve seen him being challenged at this point.”
The General Election will be a little more competitive in the 8th Congressional District. The incumbent, Tammy Duckworth, took 56% of the vote in 2014. Duckworth is leaving to run for the U.S. Senate seat held by Mark Kirk.
The three Democrats seeking to replace her are Deb Bullwinkel, Mike Noland and Raja Krishnamoorthi. Krishnamoorthi lost to Duckworth during the last primary, but now he’s supported by U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. That’s helping Krishnamoorthi’s fundraising.
“He’s got about $1.5 million compared to Noland, who has about $200,000," Streb says. "And Mike Noland is a state Senator.”
Political scientists like Streb give higher ratings to candidates who’ve held elective office, since it proves their ability to raise money and campaign effectively. According to this view, Noland and Bullwinkel, the Villa Park Mayor, should be raising lots of money. But Streb cautions that Noland, who supports universal healthcare, might be too liberal for this district. Streb compares the campaigns of Noland and Krishnamoorthi to that of Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, and says the winner at the top of the ticket could affect the race in IL-8.
Whichever Democrat wins will face Republican Pete DiCianni and Independent Bill Fraser in the General Election.
DiCianni, a DuPage County Commissioner, could get help from national Republicans this Fall. “It’s an open seat race,” Streb says. “It leans Democratic, it should be a Democratic seat, but in a good Republican year this is the type of seat they could pick up.”
Streb adds that DiCianni has the political experience and fundraising ability to make this a competitive race.
Tomorrow, Streb previews the coming battle in the 17th Congressional District.
