With the unprecedented floods of 2019, observers say Illinois is beginning to see the effects of climate change. State Climatologist Trent Ford emphasized that increased precipitation as a result of the warming atmosphere is a major consequence of climate change that Illinois will experience. In a recent conversation with WNIJ, Ford described the increase in overall rainfall and in severe weather events:
“We're seeing an increase not only in overall precipitation, total precipitation, but those events where one or two inches or more falls in a 24-hour period. That creates a whole series of issues related to water management and of course agriculture and urban design, things like that as far as how to how to manage that water.”
Ford also said as a result of more intense rainfall and stronger storms, local communities may experience more flooding. This was the case in 2019, when record long flood stages on the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers required the deployment of the Illinois National Guard to assist in evacuations and fortifications. Besides more flooding, heavier rainfall can strip away topsoil from farmland. This runoff, Ford warned, can contain potentially toxic elements:
“Runoff from ag fields that takes you know, nitrogen, phosphorus, other sorts of nutrients and micro-nutrients into the water system, which first and foremost is an environmental water quality problem. And we've seen that with, the harmful algal blooms here forming this state as well as downstream but also the the hypoxia zone there in the Gulf of Mexico. That's directly linked to increase nutrient runoff from the Midwest.”
Algal blooms and water pollution are only some of the possible consequences of agricultural runoff. Erosion from agricultural fields removes the key nutrients and soil needed to grow crops. DeKalb County farmer Eldon Gould described this possibility in these terms:
“If we lose our topsoil which is really our livelihood, that is a concern.”
However, Gould spoke with skepticism on the relation of climate change to more extreme weather in the state. He stated: “This will be my, I think 56th or 57th crop that I will plant this year. You know, I've seen a lot of weather variability, whether that's climate change or not, I'm less certain. I mean each year is unique and obviously 2019 was extremely unique. But I'm not one to attribute that to climate change.”
Another DeKalb County farmer, Roy Plote, described the difficulties that resulted from last year's extraordinary precipitation. Although many farmers in the area have tiled fields -- a method used to remove excess water with underground pipes and tubing -- Plote said the unprecedented rainfall still slowed production.
“2019 definitely was the wettest year we've ever had. The big deal is that we actually have more tiling now. You know, many people still expected to be able to plant their tiled fields, but because the streams, the creeks, the ditches and the rivers were all backed up, they still couldn't drain as fast as what we thought.”
Plote agreed for the need to preserve his farm's topsoil from rain driven erosion. He uses cover crops to prevent runoff. Like Gould, Plote did not see this increased precipitation as related to climate change. He did not see human activity as playing a role in climate events and is skeptical of reports that precipitation will continue to increase.
"A three-to-six-month forecast is about as purposeful as a piece of gum stuck to the back of your ear.”