Labor Day is traditionally when political campaigns go into high gear. According to conventional wisdom, that's when voters start paying more attention to the candidates.
But this election cycle is anything but conventional. The major party presidential candidates, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, are well-known to voters but for the wrong reasons; both have high negative ratings.
What's more, the rhetoric from both campaigns is increasingly ugly, which has observers wondering if this will lower voter turnout in the fall.
One expert, Matt Streb, says this could affect other races, such as those for U.S. Senate. Streb is a political science professor at Northern Illinois University. He says a handful of contests could determine control of the upper chamber.
The race in Illinois might be among the decisive ones. Incumbent Mark Kirk, a Republican, is in a tough fight with Democratic U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth. Kirk publicly distanced himself from Trump and demanded hearings for President Obama's nominee for the Supreme Court, Merrick Garland.
Streb says there isn’t a lot of good polling for this race, but he notes The Upshot blog of The New York Times gives Duckworth an 80% chance of winning in November. Streb isn’t surprised, even though Kirk -- a moderate -- is a good fit for a blue state like Illinois.
"A lot of people say, `Why would I want someone who's kind of acting like a Democrat? If I really want a Democrat, I'll just choose a Democrat'," Streb says.
Another closely-watched race is in Wisconsin, where incumbent Republican Ron Johnson faces a rematch with Democrat Russ Feingold. Streb says Johnson and Feingold are raising similar amounts of money from the national parties. But most surveys show Feingold winning by 8 points if the election were held today.
"Johnson hasn't been a particularly popular Senator," says Streb. "And Russ Feingold, even though he lost in 2010, was fairly popular for many years. He's well-known in the state, and even with his loss he's well respected."
The Upshot gives Feingold an 89% chance of winning in November. Other hotly-contested Senate races are in Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida and Nevada.
Democrats need a net gain of five seats to take control of the upper chamber.
