AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
President Trump is ramping up the pressure on Venezuela's leader, President Nicolas Maduro, and has been for weeks now. He's sent warships to the region. The U.S. has carried out strikes on what it says are drug boats, and he's linked Maduro to drug trafficking. That's an accusation the Venezuelan denies, and Maduro is refusing to step down. Jimmy Story co-founded Global Frontier Advisors, a geopolitical advisory, after serving as U.S. ambassador to Venezuela under both the Trump and Biden administrations, and he joins us now. Thank you for being with us.
JIMMY STORY: Thanks so much for having me this morning.
RASCOE: So President Trump has said that President Maduro's days are numbered. Do you agree?
STORY: I do. And I guess fundamentally, all of our days are numbered, but his in particular after losing a...
RASCOE: As leader.
STORY: ...After losing...
RASCOE: As leader.
STORY: ...An election.
RASCOE: Yeah.
STORY: Yeah. Of course. But after losing an election by over 70 - you know, 70 points last year - 70% of the people went out, voted him out of office - he's not a particularly beloved figure in the country. He's completely beggared the economy. He lost an election, and he's involved with all this other kind of criminality and engagement with our strategic competitor. So I do think his days are numbered. Now the question is when that day comes up. I think that's what we're all speculating right now.
RASCOE: Well, how does that happen? Because, I mean, even though - you know, there are experts who say that he lost the election, right? But he's still in power and he's refusing to step down. Do you think the U.S. is likely to carry out military action inside Venezuela to make that happen?
STORY: I think it's increasingly likely that some type of military action takes place. I do not believe that we have the resources in the theater for an invasion, but the president has at his disposal all of the resources necessary to do limited strikes inside of the country, again further pressuring Maduro to step down. I think the theory of change here has been that someone close to Maduro will ask him to seek an exit. Now, that'll be very difficult, especially considering which countries are engaged inside of Venezuela. And for Cuba, this is really existential, so the Cubans are not going to want to see Maduro leave the country or step down from power.
RASCOE: If the Venezuelan president is overthrown, does the U.S. have a plan for the day after?
STORY: Oh, that's a great question. And I've done a number of interviews over the last couple of months, and I'm like, listen. The second-, third-, fourth-order effects are the most important here. Now, the Venezuelan people overwhelmingly voted for Edmundo Gonzalez last year, and they had the receipts. They showed the world the receipts. They actually got all the polling data from poll to poll to poll. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean that he can fly back in and take over on day one, and I do think that reinstitutionizing the country is going to be a nonlinear process. You've got and you're going to have to keep the military because you have so many illegal armed groups inside the country. And you need to reinstitutionalize the country of 25 years of these institutions being undermined, right?
RASCOE: Well, is there now a need for an off-ramp for both sides?
STORY: Well, there's certainly a need for an off-ramp for Maduro. And I think that's something that under the first Trump administration, we attempted, under the Biden administration, we attempted via negotiations. Now the question I have is, how much is the president going to want to invest in helping a post-Maduro Venezuela? I think that's a fundamental question. Now what - like you asked, what is the plan?
RASCOE: Well, what would be the consequences for the U.S. if it once again orchestrates regime change in another country and, I mean - and dealing with the uncertainties that would come after that?
STORY: Well, let me start by saying that the Venezuelan people have already spoken. That's the first point of order, right? They've already voted him out of office. The second is we are suffering. The region is suffering through, and the Venezuelan people themselves are suffering through the largest migration in the history of the hemisphere. Nine million people - 25% of the Venezuelan population - has fled due to this dictatorial regime. So I think one of the questions to ask is, would it be better off without Maduro? Definitely. You know, what is the plan for fixing that - the situation inside of Venezuela? It's going to be complicated, of course.
RASCOE: That's former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela Jimmy Story. Ambassador, thank you so much for speaking with us.
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